☀️ Good Morning! Thanks for reading Next. If someone forwarded this to you, get your own copy by signing up for free here. 

In today’s issue: A preview of what is looking to be a tumultuous fall semester, with colleges still unsure of how many students are coming to campus in light of the bungled rollout of the new FAFSA, and apprehension about how tense campuses might get in the leadup to Election Day.

My name is Martin Van Der Werf. Like Jeff, I am a longtime journalist who now researches and writes about higher education. Today, I am filling in for Jeff to give him more time to work on his book! 

EVENTS

🗓️ The September "Next Office Hour" on Thursday, September 19 at 2 p.m. ET will be focused on The Role of Faculty in Driving Value 

• Faculty play perhaps the most critical role in ensuring positive outcomes for institutions from student success to research, yet colleges don’t always have the data they need to showcase faculty impact and their ultimate value. We’ll examine the role of faculty and answer fundamental questions about why some universities and some programs might outperform others. 

👉 More details to come, but for now register for free here (Support from Interfolio)

THE LEAD

By the end of this month, the academic year will be underway at many colleges, but how many students will be taking classes?

Many colleges are still not sure. The number of students who have completed the FAFSA form is still running more than 10 percent behind last year. If students haven't filed FAFSAs, they can’t get financial aid. And almost three-quarters of undergraduates get financial aid in some form. The botched rollout of the new “simplified” FAFSA form put many potential students behind, and they may have to put their college dreams on hold.

This is not such a big issue on selective campuses, which have more students who are paying full price or close to it, and financial aid budgets that allow lower-income students to attend without worrying about having to get a second job. 

Many colleges, however, are likely to be hard hit, mostly small colleges. More than one-third of all colleges in this country have fewer than 1,000 students. 

• I wrote on Medium about these colleges, which survive mostly by competing on price. But without a FAFSA from an applicant on hand, small colleges don’t know how much financial need that student has. A college might blindly make an offer, and discount itself into oblivion. On the other hand, if they don’t keep enrollment up, small colleges are headed for oblivion anyway.
• As I put it in my blog post, “You might say, rightfully so, that scratching for tuition dollars to keep the mission and vision alive for just one more year is a hell of a way to run a business that is supposed to deal in impermanence. But that is the reality for many colleges in this country.”
• One analyst I spoke with thinks the pace of closures among small colleges will double or triple this year. They were closing this spring at the rate of about one per week. This would be a sad ending for many of these colleges, which historically have been at the vanguard of innovation and experimentation in higher education.

The other colleges likely to be seriously impacted are regional public colleges. Think of the non-flagship public colleges which often have a direction in their name, like Northern Arizona or Western Connecticut. These institutions tend to serve students from lower-income families who generally are more on-the-fence about going to college and very sensitive to price. 

• I was at a conference in July of the organization for these colleges, the American Association of State Colleges and Universities, where I met an enrollment official from one of the State University of New York campuses. He told me that while everyone seemed worried about getting FAFSAs from new students, they were not paying sufficient attention to the students they already have.
• Almost 40 percent of the returning students at his institution had not filed a FAFSA as of mid-July. If many of those students did not return, it would leave a huge hole in the budget.

 —Meanwhile, as if financial worries weren’t enough, colleges are also bracing for a flame up in the culture wars. Colleges are not looking to relive the unrest and tension many saw in protests over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but the presidential election this fall might be the new trigger for student protests. A non-profit organization called the Constructive Dialogue Institute is urging colleges to have “proactive strategies in place before November to avoid conflict.” It is even offering training and certifications in how to facilitate difficult conversations. 

• This article gives more advice from the organization about what colleges can do to prepare, including examples of strategies from the University of San Diego, Muhlenberg College, and the University of Northern Colorado. I can already foresee parents asking their children to come home for Election Day.

Is College Worth It? (Part Bajillion 😉)

Members of Generation Z are increasingly confident that they can get a good job without earning a college degree. But their parents think differently: 77 percent believe a college education is worth it.

The data continues to show that a college education is the best investment for career success. The research center where I work, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, published a report in July projecting that two-thirds of all good jobs in 2031 will go to workers with at least a bachelor’s degree (good jobs pay a minimum of $43,000 for workers 25-44 and $55,000 for workers aged 45-64, with a median salary of $82,000 for all good jobs). 

• Another 19 percent of good jobs will go to workers with more than a high school diploma but less than a bachelor’s degree, primarily those with an associate’s degree, postsecondary certificate, or a professional license or certification.
• Only 16 percent of good jobs will go to workers with no more than a high school diploma.

While I am writing about the Georgetown Center, let me highlight a few more reports we have recently published with important insights about college and the world of work. 

• The credentials being produced by colleges and other providers are greatly misaligned with the needs of the labor force. In more than half of the nation’s labor markets, at least 50 percent of the middle-skills credentials would need to be granted in a different field to align with the jobs that are going to be open by 2031.
• A law degree does not pay off as handsomely as some might think, especially with the high debt that most law students take on while pursuing the degree. In fact, the median earnings for graduates of 33 law schools four years after graduation are less than $55,000 net of debt. It’s enough to make you think very seriously about committing to the law field. The Georgetown Center has been measuring the ROI of colleges, and naming names, for years. Take a look at our online ROI tools and reports.
• Rural areas have a lot of potential for economic development, but need more attention from policy makers. They have nearly as large a share of good jobs as rural areas, but it may not stay that way unless we invest more in educational opportunities and training in those locales.

Brush Up on Your Soft Skills

As the parent of a soon-to-be college senior, I worry about his transition into the labor force. It turns out that others are looking to ease the imposter syndrome of budding adults. I was walking through a conference recently when someone stuck a VR headset in my hand, and challenged me to do a job interview. (I did OK with eye contact but could improve on using my hands to help make my points. Noted!) 

This was the handiwork of Bodyswaps, a British company that uses virtual reality to let college students (and, well, anyone) practice job interviews, making presentations, giving feedback on co-worker performance, working in teams, and all kinds of other situations that some young people have maybe never done before. We read a lot about employers seeking workers with strong soft skills. This is one idea for increasing that skill set.

SUPPLEMENTS

🔎 Higher ed investor and critic Ryan Craig suggests that selective colleges require students to disclose if an admissions consultant has helped in any way with an application. Craig often mixes anecdotes from his own life into his amusing columns. It isn’t often that one can identify the throughline between partner swapping among senior citizens and college admissions consulting, but he delivers. (Gap Letter)

💳 This thorough report on the “complicated world of tuition pricing” gives some insight into how colleges use discounting to compete with one another, even if that competition is invisible to all but applicants. It includes a priceless quote: “It’s one of the few sectors where what you pay isn’t what it costs, and then what it costs isn’t what you’re charged.” (Higher Ed Dive)

💰 The Institute for Higher Education Policy raises a profound question: “Should financial aid be based on family wealth, rather than income alone?” The best answer is probably to base financial aid on a combination of wealth and income. (Hechinger Report)

🎸 Finally, if you are not already a fan of Metallica, you should be. Did you know that the band has given grants to 60 community colleges across all 50 states to help students learn “trade skills.” That is One effort I can support. (New Noise Magazine)

Thanks for reading. If you want to see more of my writing on higher education, follow me on Medium, X, or LinkedIn.

Cheers,

Marty