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In today's edition: An update on the new book, apprenticeships in teaching, and growing enrollment in the face of demographic decline. 

EVENT

🔜 Join me this Thursday, December 14, when I host author Ben Wildavsky, on “LinkedIn Live” at Noon ET/9 a.m. PT to discuss his new book, The Career Arts. We’ll discuss how students (and colleges) can better prepare for a changing workforce by combining broad education, targeted skills, and social capital.

As part of this discussion, Wildavsky’s publisher, Princeton University Press, is offering attendees a 30% off discount on book when purchased on its website. Use the code: WILD30 (Expiration: 7/31/2024).

You can watch our conversation in one of two ways:

• Click FOLLOW on my LinkedIn profile to get notified when we go live (if your LinkedIn notifications are enabled)
• Come to my profile page on Thursday at Noon ET/9 a.m. PT

THE LEAD

It’s been a few months since I announced the deal for my next book. If you recall, the book will look at what happens when Plan A for the college search doesn't work out as expected for families, then what should Plan B be?

Lots of people have been asking me what I’ve found so far in the research and how they might help, so I wanted to give a quick update before the calendar turns to 2024.

First, as I’ve talked to parents and college counselors in recent months, I’ve been thinking about what this book needs to do. In much the same way as Atomic Habits and The Power of Habit tried to shift our mindset about developing better habits, my belief is that this book must help us reexamine what makes a “good” college. The goal is not for students and parents to settle for a second choice, but to consider the vastness of higher education beyond a handful of selective schools. 

As I map out the book, the first half will be focused on explaining to readers why they need to reevaluate their college strategy in the first place. If you’ve been through the process recently, you’re probably thinking duh, of course they do. But everyone approaches this process as newbies, thinking their experience will be different. And as my editor reminds me, we live in an aspirational society: we want to aim for what we’re told is the top.

In the first half, I plan to illustrate how the admissions landscape has shifted in just the last few years by following the college-going experiences of recent graduating classes at three or four high schools that I’m in the process of identifying now (if you're at a high school and want to be considered, reach out). For that section, I’m often reminded of this scene from Jeff Makris, director of college counseling at Stuyvesant High School, for a piece I wrote in New York magazine last year:

“While we spoke, Makris pulled up the admissions results for his students going back to 2016. He rattled off a bunch of college names. About the same number of his students get accepted at the usual suspects in the Ivy League now as six years ago, though many more apply too. What might surprise students and parents from a few years ago, however, is the next set of colleges Makris mentioned: Northeastern, Case Western, Boston University, and Binghamton University. In 2016, 298 students applied to Northeastern, and 91 were admitted; last year, applications to the Boston school jumped to 422, but only 49 were admitted. Last year, 129 Stuy students applied to Case Western, about the same number as in 2017, but admits were almost cut in half to 36. In 2016, the acceptance rate for Stuy’s students who applied to Boston University was 43 percent; last year, it was 14 percent. Normally, Makris said, about 50 to 75 graduates enroll at Binghamton University, one of the state’s top public universities but a safety school among many Stuy students. This fall, 124 students went there."

The first half of the new book will also examine why parents need to align their expectations with what their kids want (or need), how the merit-aid game continues to expand the college list for many families, and the ways employers hire from more than just the “top schools.”

In all, I hope the first half sets up the second half of the book, which will explore the “elements” of what makes a good college—using a mix of qualitative and quantitative data points.

So how can you help?

I’m always on the lookout for families who’ve been through the process at least once and have a kid in college (or recently out) and might have a story to tell about how they were on the path for Plan A and it didn’t work out—they didn’t get in, they couldn’t afford it, or for some other reason it wasn’t the right fit—and they turned to Plan B, which in the end turned out better.

My discussions with you will be anonymous: I will only be using first names or a pseudonym and no identifying details in the book.

In addition, to illustrate other research findings in the book, I’m also looking for those who might have other stories to tell, including:

• Dual enrollment: students who took dual enrollment courses thinking it would make college faster/cheaper—and it did (or didn’t).
• Found a “good” Buyer on my Buyers/Sellers list: those who leaned into merit aid and found a “good” school with a great aid package.
• Social media influenced: I'm reading through research now about the influence TikTok, in particular, has on teenagers in putting together their list. Did your kid shift their thinking about where to go based on the algorithms on social media feeding them a steady diet of a particular kind of school or region? 

If you can help in any way as a potential source, please complete this short form. I won’t be able to respond to everyone, but I will reach out if you fit what I’m looking for to illustrate the research.

Finally, look for a survey that I’m putting together with a team of researchers to support the reporting for this book that will hit early in the new year.

Solving the Teacher Shortage 

Urban schools seem to get all the attention and money when it comes to teacher shortages, but there are just as many kids in rural communities as there are in urban communities—and the teacher shortages are even more acute.

What’s happening: At a recent gathering I spoke at in Texas, superintendents and principals told me university-based teacher-education programs that have been traditional pipelines to staffing in their schools are either closing or producing few teachers than in the past.

• Reach University is trying to fix that problem by working with school districts to take high-potential individuals already working in school buildings who don’t have a college degree. It then turns their day job into an apprenticeship that confers college credits and culminates in a college degree.

How it works: Reach is a regionally accredited nonprofit university. The apprenticeship is essentially the homework component of the coursework.

• The courses themselves happen on nights and weekends and are taught by either current teachers or former teachers.
• “Our faculty are incredibly talented K-12 teachers themselves with a demonstrable track record of getting good outcomes for kids who are now sharing their trade and their craft with others,” Mallory Dwinal-Palisch, Reach's chancellor, told me and Michael Horn on a recent two-part episode of Future U.

By the numbers: The cost of Reach U is often covered by linking together Pell Grants and apprenticeship funding so that there’s no cost to the student or the school district.

Bottom line: I love this model not only because in a previous generation it could have helped my own mother—a teacher’s aide without a college diploma get one—but it solves what is increasingly a big problem in the U.S.: finding teachers, who often don’t want to pay for the cost of a four-year degree only to find out they can’t pay off their debts or that they don’t like to teach. This model takes people already in schools, and for little to no cost, helps them become teachers in those same schools.

🎧 Listen to Part 1 and Part 2 of the interview with Mallory Dwinal-Palisch on Future U. (sponsored by Ascendium’s Education Philanthropy)

Driving Demand for Higher Ed

In 2019, engineering and computer science degrees awarded in the U.S. surpassed all humanities degrees combined—both in proportion and sheer numbers of bachelor’s degrees.

Driving the news: Given many colleges and universities have built their core around the humanities, institutions are facing a mismatch between supply and demand. They have faculty and resources where they don’t seem to need them and lack resources where there is student demand. It’s why we’re seeing some colleges cut majors, like West Virginia University (The Atlantic), and a few even close, such as the College of Saint Rose (Inside Higher Ed) in New York, which will at the end operations after this academic year.

Colleges needn’t face a future of decline. It’s important to remember that enrollment is also a function of demand—and colleges and universities can create interest in their programs by what they offer and what's wanted by employers. One example: data analytics.

• As I outline in a new paper—part two of a three-part series of papers I’m writing on the growth of data science—colleges can use data analytics to create demand and grow enrollment across the curriculum, not just in data-related disciplines.
• “Graduates aren’t going to have marketability if they don’t have data analytics incorporated in their courses,” Christine Cheng, an assistant professor at the University of Mississippi, told me.

Case study: Infusing data analytics into the curriculum—and even adding it as a major—can happen everywhere, even traditional liberal-arts colleges.

• Denison University, for instance, was among the first liberal-arts college in the U.S. to start a data analytics major in 2016.
• The major has grown to be the sixth largest at the Ohio institution, where students must complete the program in the context of another academic domain (i.e., biology, economics, environmental science, philosophy), its president, Adam Weinberg told me.

⬇️ Download part two of the three-part series here. (Registration required; supported by Alteryx)

🚨 In case you missed it, part one can be found here.

SUPPLEMENTS

🏛️ Short-term Pell. A bi-partisan bill has been introduced in Congress that would allow students eligible for a Pell Grant to use it for college programs that last less than the traditional 15-week semester. The bill would allow online programs as well as those at for-profit colleges as long as they meet several quality-assurance provisions, as Alison Griffin and Noah Sudow of Whiteboard Advisors note in their analysis of the bill. (Whiteboard Advisors)

📊 Have and Have Nots. S&P Global, one of the major bond rating agencies, has released its outlook for higher education for 2024, and to no surprise, it finds a sector that is “bifurcated, still.” That means the schools getting more positive outlooks and revisions up in their financial grades are already at the higher end of the ratings scale and have, according to S&P, growing enrollment, surpluses, and prominent research opportunities. Among the risks S&P sees for the sector: high management turnover, higher insurance costs, and cyber attacks. (S&P, registration required)

🪜 Top 100 Colleges for Leaders. Another week, another college ranking. But to add to a continuing discussion (and a major point in my next book) about the validity of diplomas from top colleges as proxies for elite jobs, this ranking from Time is based on the resumés of 2,000 top leaders in the United States. Ranked in the top 20 along with the usual suspects: Arizona State University. There are a few other “surprises” on the list, too. Take a look. (Time).

Until next time, Cheers — Jeff